Month: September 2011

Beyond the Margin: Redirecting Asia’s Capitalism

On August 24, 2011 Avantage Ventures released a report titled ‘Beyond the Margin: Redirecting Asia’s Capitalism’, the first to analyse the Asian social finance market.

I had the opportunity share some of my insight thoughts with the Avantage Ventures staff during the preparation of this report. The report has, for the first time, made an attempt to give a number to the estimated size of the Asian Social Investments market. The report highlights six key social sectors that would benefit most from impact investments, these include:

  • Affordable housing
  • Sustainable agriculture and agribusiness
  • Water and sanitation facilities
  • Primary and special needs education
  • Rural and elderly healthcare
  • Rural access to energy

Of these, affordable housing, primary education and rural and elderly healthcare represent the three sectors with the greatest market opportunity. The report also estimates the potential market size that can be captured through impact investing in Developing Asia to be between USD52 to USD158 billion by 2020.

The report Beyond the Margin  can be found here. or here av_report_final_full_screen_version

Who can you lend money to?

What I have assimilated in the last few months:  bunch of things may be considered to decide upon who is “creditworthy”.

1.) Does the borrower have an intention to repay

  • Whether he has a past track record of taking loans and what does that track record look like. If he doesn’t have a track record you can’t tell whether he is a good borrower or a bad borrower. In other words, some history of borrowing is better than no history of borrowing when it comes to credit scoring.
  • What do people known to him say? Would he make a good borrower?
  • What does his historical track record of income and expenditure show? Is he financially cautious? Does he save money? Does he educate his children? Has he built assets over time from his income like savings, FD, property, gold, insurance, chit fund?
  • Has he repaid both secured and unsecured loans?

2.) Does the borrower have an ability to repay.

  • How much does he earn? How much is his expenditure? Does he have documented evidence? If not, what is the estimated income for somebody with similar profession in that particular geography? What do his suppliers say? What do his customers say? What do people who pay him say?
  • What do people, who know him, say his earnings are? What kind of a locality does he stay in? How are his living conditions?
  • Do the assets accumulated by him over the last 3-5 years reflect the income that he claims he has?
  • What is the maximum and minimum earning possible per month?
  • What is the residual amount of money left for the family after repayment of installment if the loan is given? Reduce loan amount or increase tenure if very little is left for the family.

Early stage investment in a start-up

A bunch of articles that talk about seed stage/pre-VC stage investments in startups. The debate is primarily between whether to do a convertible debt or to do a preferred equity. There are arguments both for and against each side.

The basic premise: convertible debt delays the conversation on valuation to the next round. It gives you the time to “set” the benchmark for your company’s valuation. Preferred equity is a simpler way of dealing with investments, if you are sure that your performances now gets you a fair valuation.

Brad Feld lays out the difference between convertible debt and preferred equity and points out that both routes have support. However, he does point out that if you do not intend to raise a big VC round next and hope to continue with small angel rounds, it is more sensible for you to do a preferred equity to be fair to your investors: http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2006/02/whats-the-best-structure-for-a-pre-vc-investment.html

Josh Kopleman has a clear favourite in preferred equity because it aligns both the investor and entrepreneurs interest i.e. both with be interested in increasing the valuation of the company in the next round! However, he also says that a convertible note could be useful when you are already expecting a round of equity in a few weeks/months. He does give a few other reasons, read on… http://redeye.firstround.com/2006/04/bridge_loans_vs_1.html

Just in case you are suddenly confused about what Preferred stock is, here is a primer from the good old Investopedia to help you. Just go through the basics and come back for the remaining interesting stuff. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/preferredstock.asp#axzz1STNUO900

Seth Levine talks about the two options and clearly spells out the fact that though this seems to have a near term benefits for the startups he is not sure if it is sustainable in the long term. Great explanation of the context! http://www.sethlevine.com/wp/2010/08/has-convertible-debt-won-and-if-it-has-is-that-a-good-thing

Mark Suster clearly believes that convertible debt without cap is not here to stay for long. A nice write-up on how convertible debts came about and how the entrepreneurs should look at the option of convertible debt. http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/08/30/is-convertible-debt-preferable-to-equity/

Ok, the verdict is clear in the post title, Furqaan Nazeeri lists out reasons why he thinks convertible debt “sucks”. http://altgate.typepad.com/blog/2008/06/5-reasons-conve.html

Bill Payne explains the mechanics of convertible debt.  The graphs are missing but worth a read. http://www.matr.net/article-29148.html

A list of articles by Bill Payne on convertible debt and preferred stock. Great stuff in one place. http://billpayne.com/category/convertible-debt