Proliferation of “Chinese” goods!

When I went around looking for some memorabilia at the Liberty Island, US hoping to take something back home, I was surprised to see all items having a “Made in China” stamp. I repeat … all. I was stumped. I wanted to carry something back that represented the US and here, everything that represented the US was actually Chinese!

A few years earlier, I lived in a remote village in North Bengal for two months. The village was 10 km away from a metalled road and had only mud houses. There was no electricity and none of the households had a toilet. Guess what the villagers used for pumping water into the fields for agriculture? Chinese pump sets!

Low cost wins. Not just against remote access and utter poverty, but also against pride.

Developed vs developing world

Is there a way to differentiate between a “developed” nation and a “developing” nation by asking a single question?

I think yes.

When you want to find out if a particular place belongs to the “developed” category just ask a fairly rich local “What is your preferred mode of travel within the city/town anytime during the day? ”

If the answer is a train or a bus or any other public transport, you know you are in a developed country.

(I guess it is simplistic but more often than not the logic is correct.)

Impact Measurement

In the recent times, there has been a lot of discussion on social performance measurement. From CSR initiatives to charity foundations and from investors to social enterprises, everybody has either adopted or has been talking about adopting social performance measurements.

At the same time there is a group of people who think it is all a fad with complicated measurement systems trying to “measure” qualitative factors which are extremely difficult to quantify and hence extremely subjective. How do you measure “well-being” for instance?

The answer lies in the fact that we have to find proxies that indicate well-being. For instance- number of times the person has fallen sick in the last 6 months. This is just a simplified indication of what measuring is about. The job of finding the right proxies is critical and often learnt from experience. We should not land up with a wrong proxy and try to push results in that direction doing much disservice to the actual intent of the social programme or enterprise.

We need to identify a simple verifiable metric and we have to track it in regular intervals beginning with the baseline.

The metrics must be simple to track but verifiable and the tracking methodologies should not be so expensive that it doesn’t justify the the measurement & verification process altogether.

My career has revolved around the issue of “Income Generation” either through providing technology support, training to small entrepreneurs or through providing access to finance. I keep thinking how I can measure the impact of the work that we do on small entrepreneurs.

What could be that one metric that I could measure to keep understand the impact?

I think the primary indicator to keep track of is “Asset” build up. Assets could be land, building, an additional room in the house, a cow or a a vehicle bought with own money. It is easy to verify and track. In cases where it is part funded by loans, we can find out if his last few repayments were made on time.

What do you think?

Business Sustainability

There are four key ways in which we typically try to do better in business/improve profitability.

  1. Offer a cheaper product with the belief that improved affordability will increase the size of the target market.
  2. Offer a better product (at the same or higher price) with the belief that customers will appreciate the value of a better product and pay the premium to buy it.
  3. Increase revenue by increasing the number of units sold (either through larger production or expansion of geography or a better marketing push) or increasing the price (by offering better products?).
  4. Cut costs. This would help you do better in terms of profitability at the same revenue levels.

While all the above are seen to operate, my personal belief is that a combination of 2. and 3. is the best strategy to adopt. The other two may be good in case of a late life cycle product. While it is another question as to what/how you define late life cycle products, it is certain that such products would either have significantly cheaper substitutes (so cheap that it is close to my manufacturing costs) which weren’t initially found OR the need for the product is fast vanishing altogether (a standalone music system with multiple CD/DVD players?). In either case, the product would soon die and your company would die too unless you develop a better product.

Addendum:

A note by consultants at McKinsey on pricing, gets me thinking on the increasing volume vs cutting cost options. According to them, “a price rise of 1 percent, if volumes remained stable, would generate an 8 percent increase in operating profits—an impact nearly 50 percent greater than that of a 1 percent fall in variable costs such as materials and direct labor and more than three times greater than the impact of a 1 percent increase in volume.”

This means that a 1% reduction in cost has greater positive impact on profitability than 1% increase in volume!  It also means that increasing pricing is the surefire way to bumping up your profitability. This is from a study on S&P 1500 companies.

Caution: Know when and how you can increase your prices.

Needs more thought.

Pricing: Loan against property v/s home loan

Simplified Definitions

Mortgage Loan/Loan Against Property (LAP):A mortgage loan is given for an open end use and is given against the lien of a property.

Home Loan: is given for a restricted purpose of buying/ constructing a house to stay.

Typically a mortgage loan is often the most common way of raising funds for growing the business. Banks typically get comfort from the availability of fixed collateral to be able to recover from in case of loan default.

The rate of interest charged on a Loan Against Property is higher (much higher) than a Home Loan.

Historically, default rates of LAP (for business purposes) have been high justifying a high rate of interest.

Why?

Question 1: Is the assessment of loan eligibility for LAP done assuming that cash flows from the business will grow due to utilisation of the funded amount for capex/WC use? If that is not the case, why would the default happen?

Question 1 a.) why can’t we give the loan based on existing cash flows?

People say that the loan size would be too small and not meet the requirement for the capex. My comment on that response would be “Oh common! let’s grow step by step. Give me some other reason”.

Question 2: Why doesn’t the “emotional attachment” story that works in case of home loan doesn’t work for LAP?

Question 2. a.) Does the person seeking a LAP have multiple properties and so property offered on mortgage has lesser “Emotional attachment”?

Guess so.

(Also, the question is how enforceable is the mortgage? In a lot of cases, especially developing countries, legal recourse may just be too cumbersome/ inefficient. So, isn’t the collateral acting more as a deterrent. I guess it is.)

Question 3: Would a LAP given based on existing cash flows AND after taking the owners current residential home as collateral completely change the loan performance?

That is what a number of financial institutions are now trying out with the lower income/informal sector entrepreneurs. Assess loan eligibility based on current cash flows and take the residential property of the entrepreneur as collateral. However, the interest rates continue to be higher going with the notion that LAP has generally resulted in high defaults. Interestingly, last 3 year’s history in these kind of loans show very low (between 0.5- 1 % delinquency in the 90 days past due bucket). Off course, three years is not enough time but these 3 years have been the roughest phase for business in India in general as well. The other key reason for good portfolio performance could be that this type of lending is new and the good quality selection could be due to the initial “start-up precautions” taken by the financial institutions starting this product.

Assuming loan performance does show improvement in this kind of loans, is there a reason to suggest lower interest rates and hence greater affordability?

At last but very important, one oft stated reason for low home loan interest rates is that the purchase of home does not generate additional revenue but LAP for small business does and hence the borrower can pay a premium. For all practical purposes, this reasoning silences all the discussion and the confusion around the pricing by simply stating that the lender wants his pound of flesh! That’s all!

What do you think?

Private property v/s Shared ownership

In the real “physical” world, humans went from economies based on shared resources or common property resources as seen during the “hunter gatherer” phase of ancient human civilisation to the economies based on concepts of private property and ownership as we see today in the modern era.

Interestingly, in the digital world, we have taken the OPPOSITE direction. While we owned servers in the past and owned every piece of hardware and digital storage spaces earlier, today we have moved almost completely towards the concept of shared “ownership” . We don’t own our mail servers. Most websites are hosted on shared space maintained by others and we have the likes of the mighty Amazon Web Services that offer shared services.

Housing and Housing Finance (Part-3)

In addition to the points discussed in the earlier post, there are a few other key elements that go a long way in ensuring access to finance. Two major aspects are discussed in this last post of this series.

Credit Infrastructure: In addition to the above, comprehensive credit information systems, reliable information on house transactions and prices and mortgage registries improve transparency in the process of credit evaluation for housing loans and thereby improve the ability of housing finance companies to build a less risky portfolio.  Interestingly, a lot of work has been done in these spaces over the last couple of years. Significant growth in borrower information in credit bureau databases and mortgage registries like CERSAI as well as measures like the RESIDEX are great beginnings.

Customer Protection: While all of the above are important in increasing the flow of credit to the lower income or informal sector households, an associated issue is that of customer protection. A robust financial architecture is built on strong customer protection norms and this can be achieved only if the originator is directly liable for the appropriateness of the financial product being sold by them to their customer. This becomes all the more important in the case of the informal sector and lower income borrower because the cash flows and risks faced by such a borrower are very different from a standard salaried home loan customer.

At this point of time, all of us in the financial sector need to take a hard look at the issue of customer protection and frame appropriate guidelines for the same. Regulators are best placed to initiate such measures which look at a shift from the conventional financial literacy and disclosure based approaches of customer protection to a more involved engagement of the originators, where they take responsibility for ensuring the right housing finance product is offered to each class of customer.

(While thoughts are mine, I can’t deny that a lot of these thoughts have been shaped by the organisation I work for. I owe a lot of the thinking to IFMR Trust. IFMR Trust does extensive work in the access to finance space and has built several high quality institutions that enable access to finance.)

Housing and Housing Finance (Part -2)

The Indian policymakers and regulators have been fairly active in ensuring that through a mix of adequate policies and regulatory measures there is the right kind of stimulus to keep the housing finance market growing in India. In fact, with the expansion of housing finance institutions and regulatory and fiscal support, mortgage interest rates have come down from 16% in the mid 1990’s to 9% in the early part of the last decade, especially for the middle and higher income segments. The mortgage industry has consistently grown at an average rate of 40% annually. Increased availability of affordable housing finance has resulted in home ownership amongst a much younger group of citizens. Studies reveal that the average age of a house owner has come down by twenty years in the last decade. However, this phenomenon has been limited to the middle class and high income segment of the country and the lower income groups and economically weaker sections have remained almost completely out of this growth story.

High Quality Origination: The households falling under low income and economically weaker sections category, especially from the informal sector have little or no means to access finance from an organised channel. The current structure and processes within large housing finance companies and banks do not permit them to lend to these segments primarily due to lack of evidence of income. Recently, a number of specialised housing finance companies have come up that are catering to the housing finance needs of the economically weaker sections and lower income informal segment households. Such housing finance companies have developed well defined processes that help them to evaluate the informal sector customer. This is something that banks and large HFCs find difficult to do. Such new and specialised originators are fairly small in size but are growing at a rapid pace. They understand the real cash flows and risks faced by the low income or informal sector borrower and have better capability to underwrite the loans given to an informal sector customer. This is a good sign and more such institutions need to be promoted on the ground.

Risk Aggregation and Orderly Risk Transfer: While these specialised housing finance companies have developed expertise in evaluating the low income informal sector customer, what many of them  lack is the balance sheet strength to hold on to the risk, especially since housing loans are also of longer tenor.  There is also a great need to diversify funding sources for each of these originators to reduce the shocks that these companies might face due to drying up of limited sources of funding. There is significant opportunity in this space for larger financial institutions to activate triggering the growth of smaller financial institutions by lending to the smaller HFCs or participating directly in the process of lending to the lower income and informal segment borrowers through adequate risk sharing mechanisms with the small HFC. In addition, off balance sheet structures like securitisation need to be considered for a well-rounded risk management strategy for such small entities. It is essential that there is regular and orderly flow of assets from these high quality specialised originators to larger debt capital market investors who have the capacity to hold on to risk and have long-dated liabilities, thus enabling the smaller specialised originators to reach out to more and more borrowers in the informal and low income segment.  Strengthening the domestic debt capital markets through participation of institutions/investors such as insurance companies and mutual funds in mortgage-backed securities will go a long way in complementing the efforts of domestic commercial banks.

NHB has an important role to play in the development of these markets and may wish to explore further its role as a market maker of these securities and loans, act as a second-loss provider or guarantee provider for bonds of smaller lower rated but high quality originators to add to its role as a direct lender and re-financier. Significant work also needs to be done on rationalising the legal framework around mortgage backed transactions to permit more cost efficient and flexible structures. The legal framework around mortgages has held back the development of mortgage backed securitisation market in India. This has to be altered to lead to a more conducive environment.